MOOCs, MARKs & Economic Discrimination

MOOCs, MARKs & Economic Discrimination

On-line education has recently received considerable publicity. Kahn Academy’s libraries of more than 3,000 videos have been introduced into some public schools. More recently, highly regarded universities have entered the on-line education market. The leader in the new on-line university courses, known at Massive Open Online Courses or MOOCs, is Coursera.

Coursera was started by Stanford, Michigan, Penn and Princeton. Another 29 universities have joined their organization. In 2013, Coursera has 3.5 million people around the world taking 370 courses. These courses are free, but most do not offer credit. By 2018, Coursera expects to offer 5,000 courses. . . Harvard and MIT joined together to form edX, which is the second largest provider of MOOCs. Despite their growth, MOOC organizations have not developed a viable business model, but that is only a matter of time.

Questions about the future of education have emerged as MOOCs have appeared on the market. Will MOOCs replace some classroom courses? Will they replace most classroom courses? Will they change the nature of classroom courses? Three things are virtually certain. First, the quality of MOOCs will evolve and improve over time. Second, MOOCs will dramatically reduce the cost of education. Third, MOOCs will have a profound impact on our educational institutions.

MOOCs offer some distinct advantages over classroom education. Today, the biggest advantage is cost. Penn offers a three-hour on-line calculus course for credit for $178. Lower costs will make university education affordable to a much larger segment of the population, both in the United States and around the world.

MOOCs will, in time, improve the quality of their courses. The best professors will develop courses that can be widely distributed. Students will see less of a professor lecturing and more photographs, videos, graphs, charts, etc., which will improve the learning. In the future, professors may develop the text for the lectures and actors may provide the voices in a wide range of languages.

Education can be individualized with students learning at their own speed. Feedback will be much faster. Improvements in making the courses more interactive will be developed.

MOOCs also have significant disadvantages. The primary disadvantage is they lack the personal interaction with instructors and classmates. Many graduates give examples of teachers provided them with the lessons, the understanding and the encouragement to become successful. Some students may lose motivation without a classroom setting. In addition, MOOCs are best suited to replace lecture courses and not as well suited to replace lab courses.

The America university system is unquestionably the best in the world. So, why should changes to the system be considered? It is a very restrictive system. A bachelor’s degree at most state universities costs more than $100,000. Only 58% of students enrolling in a four-year bachelor’s program graduate in six years. The percentage is higher for private, non-profit schools than for public universities. For-profit institutions have a dismal graduation rate of 28%.

In addition, there is a high correlation between family income and college attendance. Poor students with high SAT scores are far less likely to complete college that students from wealthier families with lower SAT scores. This is de facto economic discrimination. Lowering the cost of education is even more important in emerging countries.

Universities need to find a way to incorporate MOOCs into existing classes where appropriate because they can improve instruction and reduce costs. In addition, the university system should develop a parallel programs based primarily on MOOCs for students who are excluded from today’s educational system due to cost. A bachelor’s degree for $10,000 would be a good objective.

The expansion of on-line courses may be disruptive to some universities. The technology is likely to reduce the required number of tenured professors, as an example. But universities should not take a struthious position. Years ago, Kodak invented and patented the digital camera, but did not manufacture them because Kodak was in the film business. Today, Kodak is in bankruptcy.

Universities may want to consider similarities between the education industry and the transportation industry as they engage in risk management. Horses were the best form of transportation for a couple of millennia, just as classrooms have been the best form of education for centuries. In the early part of the 20th century, when automobiles first appeared on the market, people argued they would not replace horses. Horses were more reliable, horses responded to verbal instructions and owners had a personal bond with their horses. In less than 50 years, of course, automobiles replaced horses to become the dominate form of personal transportation.

By 1929, there were 1,800 automobile manufacturers in United States. Economic Darwinism has reduced that number to fifteen today – three domestic and twelve foreign companies.

Although change may occur slowly in the field of education, change occurs rapidly in the field of technology and MOOCs push education further into the field of technology. Consider that 25 years ago, there was no public Internet, no web sites, no search engines, no email, no laptops, no notebooks, no smart phones, no Facebook, etc. In the last 25 years, technology has significantly impacted our lives and the way we interact with people. Changes in the next 25 years are likely to be more dramatic.

Not only will rapidly changing technology impact education, but universities will be entering into the world of price competition. This will be more like the world of business where quality and price are the most significant determinants of success and even survival.

University Risk Management Committees should evaluate how MOOCs will impact their universities. Universities should develop strategies and tactics that effectively employ the new technologies. The significant risk is that MOOCs will produce MARKs, Massive Amounts of Road Kill.