Solutions to Global Warming and the Debt Ceiling

Global warming is the greatest issue facing civilization on the planet earth. Carbon dioxide is the biggest contributor to global warming. Recent CO2 levels are double the highest levels in the last 14 million years. Scientists have found that life existed on Venus many years ago. Today the average temperature on Venus is over 700 degrees Fahrenheit (400 degrees Celsius). Life on Venus ended.

Two different approaches can be used to stop the growth in CO2: (1) capitalism and the market economy and (2) regulations and tax incentives.

Capitalism and the Market Economy

Implementing carbon taxes produces an economic incentive to find solutions to reducing carbon emissions. The tax should begin at a low level, but increase every year until carbon levels decline. Carbon taxes have been effective in the few countries that have implemented them.

Regulations and Tax Incentives

Regulations require rules and people to administer those rules. They are costly to implement and have not provided adequate solutions. Tax incentives are expensive and add to the Federal deficit.

Here is an example of the change from regulations to capitalism: Eliminate the Federal subsidies on electric cars and implement a $0.50 per gallon increase each year for ten years in the Federal tax on gasoline.

Summary

The U.S. Congress is debating the necessary increase in the debt ceiling. Reducing tax incentives and adding carbon taxes would help reduce the Federal deficit. Various forms of life on earth have existed for 500 million years. Humans have existed for only 1% of that period. If we fail to stop global warming, life on earth will continue, but may not include human beings.

Supreme Court Rulings & Ranking

In 2010, in the Citizens United case, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that corporations had the same rights as humans. Therefore, the Court concluded that limiting their political contributions violated their First Amendment right to free speech.

This allowed Super PACs (Political Action Committees) to accept unlimited political contributions from corporations. In addition, Dark Money Groups, under IRS Code 501(c)(6), can accept unlimited contributions and are not required to disclose donors.

The average cost of a successful Senate race is over $10 million. Consequently, successful candidates must support the requirements of their biggest contributors in order to get elected.

In addition to funding elections, corporations and special interest groups have over 12,000 registered lobbyists. That is more than 22 lobbyists per member of congress.

Daniel Weiner of the Brennen Center wrote that the Citizens United decision “has helped reinforce the growing sense that our democracy primarily serves the interests of the wealthy few, and that democratic participation for the vast majority of citizens is of relatively little value.”

Global warming is probably the greatest issue facing civilization in this century. In the 2022 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) case, the Supreme Court removed the EPA’s authority to mandate carbon emissions. The court stated that these regulations should be set by the “people’s representatives.” In fact, the court has taken environmental regulations out of the hands scientists and regulators and put it in the hands of Congress, where the majority of members are attorneys, not scientists. Members of Congress are influenced by their corporate contributors who fund their elections and their influential lobbyists.

Because of the Citizens United decision, removing special interest funding from U.S. elections will be virtually impossible. Citizens United and the EPA decisions will likely go down as the worst Supreme Court decisions in American history since they have done the most damage to civilization.

The Other Great Challenge of the 21st Century: Global Governance & China’s Domination of the Planet

The two great challenges of the 21^st century are global warming and China’s domination of the planet.

China has more than four times the population of the United States. When China’s GDP per capita reaches one-fourth the per capita GDP of the U.S., China will pass the U.S. in total GDP. Various forecasts predict that will happen by 2030. (See Sources.) China’s economy is expected to be twice the size of the U.S. around 2060 and three to four times the size of the U.S. by 2300. Hence, the U.S. economy will be one-fourth the size of China’s economy around the turn of the next century.

How influential is a country whose economy is one-fourth the size of the leader? Somalia and Guyana have about one-fourth the GDP of the U.S. How influential are they in global affairs?

China is already showing leadership in several areas, especially technology. China’s number of college graduates rose to over 9 million in 2021. The U.S. was just under 2 million. China now ranks 2^nd to the U.S. in the number of top universities among the top 500 in the world.

China intends to be Number 1 in renewable energy production. China already generates twice as much renewable energy (wind & solar) as the U.S. China wants to be Number 1 in the production and use of electric cars. China controls 90% of the world’s lithium. China now produces nearly twice as many electric cars and hybrids as the U.S. China intends to be Number 1 in high-speed rail. China now has more than 23,000 miles of high-speed, electric rail. The U.S. has 34 miles.

China plans to be Number 1 in artificial intelligence (AI). Eric Schmidt, former chair of Google, said, “By 2025, China will be ahead of the U.S. in AI. By 2030, they will dominate the industry.”

China plans to be Number 1 in quantum computing. According to NASA, quantum computers will outperform today’s supercomputers by more than 3,600 times and today’s personal computers by 100 million times. China is building the world’s largest quantum-computer research facility. China has already launched a satellite than utilizes quantum computing.

Along with global warming, global governance will be the other great challenge in the 21^st century. As obvious as this is, few Americans grasp the significance. Politicians often cannot see beyond the next election. Even though China’s Belt & Road Initiative may be an early element in global control, there has been little effort to address this issue.

The U.S. Federal Government should establish a task force to look beyond the four-year election cycle and focus on finding long-term solutions to global governance. One solution to consider is the expansion of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) into a governmental organization. The 38 OECD countries are democracies, including the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Israel, Japan, Australia, South Korea and others. (See OECD Members.) This organization could be strengthened into a governmental body with a population and economic power to match China.

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Sources: International Monetary Fund; World Bank; Economist Intelligence Unit; PricewaterhouseCoopers.

OECD Members: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Columbia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak

Global Warming & Capitalism

Global warming is the greatest challenge of the 21^st century. Total amount of primary energy used during the last 30 years has increased 60%. It is expected to increase by 50% in the next 30 years, driven largely by developing countries. Despite the growth in renewable energy from wind and solar, fossil fuels provide 83% of primary energy, a larger portion than they did 30 years ago, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

All nations, including the United States, should utilize capitalism and the market economy to effectively reduce carbon emissions that are accelerating global warming. Carbon taxes would stimulate investment and research into finding solutions for reducing carbon and for capturing carbon. Carbon taxes are far less costly than subsidies currently provided by the U.S. and other governments. Also, carbon taxes can be adjusted up or down to best achieve the desired results.

The carbon tax has been used effectively in Norway since 1991. Their greenhouse gas emissions have declined over 30 years while U.S. emissions have increased. The evidence supports Climate economists’ argument that a carbon tax is more effective in reducing carbon than tax subsidies. The U.S. still relies on regulations and subsidies rather than a carbon tax.

The wealthy nations are addressing global warming to varying degrees in their own countries. The poorer nations have estimated that they will need a combined total of $750 billion annually from the wealthy nations to address global warming. Very little is provided to the poor nations today and the wealthy nations do not yet have plans to solve the global warming problem in poorer nations. Solutions developed by the incentives of carbon taxes should help reduce the cost in poorer nations.

When we look back 30 years from now, the extreme hurricanes, floods and fires of 2020 and 2021 will likely make these years look among the best of the 30-year period. A U.N. climate change reports states that our planet is on track for an increase in average temperatures of 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century. At that increase, rising sea levels would force billions of people to move to higher elevations. Indonesia, the world’s fourth largest country, is already planning to move its nation’s capital from Jakarta to a higher elevation.

NASA has found evidence that Venus may have supported life 700 million years ago. Since then, Venus has undergone considerable global warming. The current temperatures on Venus are 475 degrees Celsius (900 degrees Fahrenheit). We should avoid the path taken on Venus.

We also should call climate change what it is, “Global Warming.” We should not lessen the importance by calling it by a lesser name. Global Warming is the most important issue in our lifetime.

Very High Speed Auto Rail (VHS-AR)

At the end of 2020, China had 23,550 miles (37,900 K) of high-speed rail. That is enough high-speed rail to cross the United States eight times. The United States has no comparable high-speed rail – zero! In 2004, China introduced the first high-speed Maglev train, suspended five inches above the ground by magnetic levitation and operated free of friction at a top speed of 268 MPH (431 KPH). Since then, Japan has created a maglev train with a top speed of 375 MPH (500 KPH). That is five times the 75 MPH speed limit on Interstate highways and nearly five times the speed of Amtrak.

The U.S. could utilize maglev technology to create a new form of transportation: Very High-Speed Auto Rail (VHS-AR). This technology would allow people to drive their automobiles onto rail cars at the origin of their trip and off rail cars at their destination, eliminating the need to park cars at airports and rent a car at the destinations. VHS-AR would require an entirely new rail system between large cities.

Rail cars might be 160 feet long and 18 feet wide. This would allow seven automobiles to park cross-wise on the bottom level with restrooms on each rail car. If a top level were created, eight autos might be parked up there. The rail car would become enclosed after the cars are parked to reduce air resistance at high speeds.

A trip from New York City to Chicago, which takes 13 hours by automobile, might take as little as two hours by VHS-AR. From Chicago to San Francisco may take as little as six hours, compared to 31 hours by auto. And, VHS-AR is environmentally friendly, running entirely on electricity.

Covid-19: Managing the Crisis

Covid-19: Managing the Crisis: Wasted Lives & Wasted Money

Worldwide, there have been 25.8 million cases of Covid-19 and 859,000 deaths by the end of August 2020. Different countries have taken different approaches to managing Covid-19. For example, on January 31, 2020, President Trump announced a travel ban on people coming from China. Within ten days other nations imposed a similar ban. Those countries allowed their citizens to return home, but tested them at the airport and quarantined those who tested positive. The U.S. allowed 40,000 citizens and relatives to return to the U.S. from China during the two months after the ban, but did not test nor quarantine. The U.S. has 4% of the world population and 22% of the deaths from Covid-19 in the world.

A comparison of the U.S. to Germany reveals differences in approach and results. Germany is the largest country in the European Union and utilized approaches similar to other western democracies.

Preparation

In 2015, Bill Gates predicted a pandemic like the 1918 Spanish flu that would spread very quickly. Germany was prepared for a pandemic with diagnostic testing, which produced same day results or next day results. They also implemented contact tracing. They had adequate personal protective gear, ventilators and other necessary medical devices. In the U.S., Obama established the Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense to prepare for a pandemic. Trump dismissed this group, leaving his administration with no preparation nor strategy for managing a pandemic.

Results

German GDP declined 10% in the second quarter.

U.S. GDP declined 33% in the second quarter.

German unemployment rate is 4.1%.

U.S. unemployment rate is 10.1%.

Germany’s public debt rose to 82% of GDP.

U.S. Government’s public debt rose to 120% of GDP.

U.S. death rate from Covid-19 is four times the German death rate.

Angela Merkel’s approval rating rose from 40% to 70%; Donald Trump’s fell.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated the cost of Covid-19 to be $8 trillion.

Other Countries

Germany is not the best performing country on Covid-19. The U.S. death rate from Covid-19 is more than 50 times the death rates in the east Asia countries – Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Taiwan, with a population of 24 million, has seven deaths to date. Florida, with a population of 22 million, has 12,786 deaths to date. Taiwan had no shutdowns. Instead, they tested, tracked and quarantined

The United States

The U.S. has led the world in scientific expertise, biomedical knowledge and immense resources, but it failed to utilize them effectively. In no other industrialized country have political leaders departed from expert advice in this crisis as frequently and significantly as the U.S.

At the beginning, the seriousness of this pandemic in the U.S. was underestimated. Trump said on January 22, “We have it totally under control,” and on February 10, “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.” On February 27, he said, “It’s going to disappear,” and on March 10, “We’re prepared. And we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm.”

The U.S. was slow to initiate diagnostic testing. When testing was ramped up, much of it was ineffective due to lengthy time periods to receive results. In addition, the U.S. lacked testing materials, personal protective gear, drugs, and devices. Efforts to track and trace infections have been largely ineffective.

Unlike other countries, the U.S. made Covid-19 a political issue. The U.S. is the only country where citizens divided over wearing masks based on political affiliation. President Trump tweeted, “Everyone is lying. The CDC, Media, Democrats, our Doctors, not all, but most that we are told to trust.” Public health officials have been threatened and harassed and some have resigned for personal safety reasons. This has not happened in other industrialized countries.

Summary

If the U.S. had adopted the procedures implemented by Germany and other countries, 140,000 American lives might have been saved to date, assuming the U.S. had the same death rate as Germany. In addition, the U.S. could have saved at least $2 trillion if it handled Covid-19 more effectively. That is as much as the cost of Social Security and Medicare combined in one year. In 2017, President Trump projected that the U.S. would have a balance budget by 2020. Instead, with Covid-19 and the related waste the deficit will exceed GDP. The ratio debt to GDP will be higher than levels during the World War II era. This ratio of debt to GDP will put the U.S. in the company of Greece, Italy and Japan

Statutes, Monuments & Other Tributes

A debate is raging over statues, monuments and other tributes honoring Americans in centuries past. Each person should be evaluated on the basis of his or her contribution to civilization. Aristotle supported slavery, but he made significant contribution to human knowledge. Decisions on American tributes should be made by elected officials, not mob rule.

George Washington made an enormous contribution to the creation of the United States. Historians have argued that without Washington and Franklin, the United States would not have been created near the end of the 18^th century. (Franklin persuaded the French to fund the American revolution and provide nearly half of the military personnel.) Washington owned slaves, which were freed when he and Martha died. Nevertheless, Washington should continue to be honored for his positive contributions to the United States.

Likewise, Thomas Jefferson made significant contributions to the United States. He drafted the Declaration of Independence and was the leading advocate for religious freedom. He served as Governor of Virginia and President of the U.S. He was also the founder of the University of Virginia. Jefferson owned slaves and only some were freed upon his death. He should also continue to be honored for his contributions to the U.S.

Article 3 of the U.S. Constitution states “Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against” the United States. Jefferson Davis and Robert E. Lee met the Constitution’s definition of treason. They engaged in a war against the United States to preserve slavery in the Confederate States. Their war against the United States caused the deaths of 620,000 Americans. That is about the same number of American soldiers who died in all wars combined since the Civil War.

Neither Davis nor Lee nor their senior officers should be honored by statues, monuments or other tributes. In addition, forts including Bragg, Benning, Hood and other military bases named for Confederates should be remained. Lee apparently agreed when he wrote in 1869 that he objected to the idea of creating Confederate monuments because it would be wiser “not to keep open the sores of war but to follow the examples of those nations who endeavored to obliterate the marks of civil strife.”

Lee’s advice was followed by Germany. Germany does not honor Adolph Hitler, Joseph Goebbels, Herman Goring, Heinrich Himmler and other leading Nazis. Neither should the U.S. honor Confederate leaders.

Removing monuments and renaming military bases does not change nor diminish American history. It stops honoring men who diminished American history.

A team of aliens from a distant planet studied Earth for a decade. They learned several languages and other information from their interpretation of intercepted communications. This team decided to visit Earth. Here is the report they sent back to their planet.

Humans are the dominant specie on this planet and they control everything. They have divided their planet into 193 countries with boarders largely determined by the winners of wars. These humans have not developed a global government for their planet. Therefore, to resolve differences among countries, the humans either negotiate or conduct wars. They spend enormous amounts of resources on defense and have killed millions of other humans rather than settling differences in global courts. (Note: Humans have created something they have mislabeled, “United Nations.” It is not a government; it does not legislate; it cannot enforce.)

To “protect” themselves and threaten others, nine countries have developed nuclear weapons. They have a combined total of 15,000 of these nuclear weapons. Most of their own experts agree that use of these weapons in a major nuclear war would end human life on this planet.

Nuclear weapons are not the only device humans have developed for destroying their own existence. They have been burning carbon fuels for a century, which has increased the density of their atmosphere, contributing to the warming of their planet. Some humans comprehend this problem, but are unable to agree and implement the necessary action to avoid their ultimate extinction. Humans should study the history of life on their sister planet, Venus, where recent temperatures have risen to more than 800 °F (427 °C) due to the increasing density of their atmosphere.

If humans were to create a global government to eliminate weapons of mass destruction and protect the environment necessary to support their lives, they might continue to inhabit their planet for centuries. Achieving this success may require an accelerated evolution of their mental capacities.

In summary:

Humans, who dominate the planet Earth, remain a barbaric specie.

Humans have created multiple ways to destroy the environment required to support their own life.

While we have enjoyed our interactions with humans, their collective decision-making reveals a vast over-estimate of their own intelligence.

Climate Change: Facts, Forecasts & Response

Climate Change: Facts, Forecasts & Response

Facts

Climate change has occurred naturally through the history of the Earth.
The climate change that has occurred in the last 100 years has, historically, taken 5,000 to 10,000 years. Greenhouse gases emissions (GHG), including carbon dioxide (CO₂), are the most important factor in accelerating global warming.
In 1910 there were more than 100 glaciers in Glacier National Park. Today there are 26. Greenland has lost an average of 278 billion tons of ice per year for the last 10 years. Antarctica has lost 155 billion tons of ice per year during the last decade.
Large oil companies know that CO₂ contributes to global warming. The average car produces five tons of CO₂per year. Bonuses paid to Shell Oil executives are based in part on the carbon emission targets aimed at reducing Shell’s global footprint. ExxonMobil is spending millions of dollars in research to develop carbon capture technologies.
China is the biggest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) followed by the U.S. On a per capita basis, the U.S. is the biggest contributor.
In the Paris Climate Agreement, countries set voluntary goals for 2020. China and India have already met their goals. The U.S. withdrew from the agreement and will not meet its goals.
Over 60 countries adopted a target that will get them to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The U.S. is not among them.

Forecasts

Climate scientists have reached a formidable consensus that, in the absence of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) significantly, the changes in climate will be substantial, with long-lasting, significant effects on many of Earth’s physical and biological systems.
No global policies to control GHG emissions would result in temperature increases of 4.1° to 4.8°C (7.4° to 8.6° Fahrenheit) by 2100. Current global policies would hold temperature increases to 3.1° to 3.7°C (5.6° to 6.7° Fahrenheit) by 2100.
An increase of 3° C would mean the loss of most costal cities and many ocean island nations. Virtually all of the coral reefs would die. An increase of 4° C would put Europe in permanent drought, make deserts out of large areas of China and India, put 1,000 Polynesian islands under water and make the American Southwest largely uninhabitable. A 5° C increase would likely end human civilization.

Response

The President has promoted increased use of fossil fuel by withdrawing environmental regulations, opening more federal land to drilling for oil and gas, and reducing auto emission standards. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions increased 3.4% in 2018 after declining over the past ten years. The Trump administration also repealed Clean Water Rules.
The EPA’s proposed budget “discontinues funding for the Clean Power Plan, international climate change programs, climate change research and partnership programs, and related efforts.” The State Department budget proposal “eliminates the Global Climate Change Initiative and fulfills the President’s pledge to cease payments to the United Nations’ (UN) climate change programs by eliminating U.S. funding related to the Green Climate Fund and its two precursor Climate Investment Funds.” The budget also cut several NASA programs designed to study climate change. Mick Mulvaney, the head of the Office of Management and Budget, said that spending in those areas is a waste of money.

Foreign Aid Mythology

Polls show that, on average, Americans believe that 28% of the Federal Budget is spent on foreign aid, according to Brookings Institution. Also, on average, Americans believe that the U.S. should spend only 10% of the Federal Budget on foreign aid. Actually, the U.S. spends less than 1% of the Federal Budget on foreign aid.

Foreign aid can also be measured as a percent of GDP. Wealthy countries have committed to spend 0.7% of GDP on foreign aid to poor countries. Norway, Sweden, Luxembourg, Denmark and the U.K. regularly exceed that benchmark. On average, wealthy countries spend 0.4% of GDP on foreign aid. The U.S. spends only 0.2% of GDP on foreign aid, ranking near the bottom.

In addition, many Americans fear that foreign aid goes to corrupt governments. Only 21% goes directly to foreign governments. The largest share goes to multinational organizations, including World Health Organization, the World Bank and the World Food Program plus USAID and others.

Author: dle2012