World Government, Sovereignty and China

The greatest problems facing civilization are (1) global warming and (2) global governance. This report explores the need for global governance.

For nearly eighty years, the World Federalist Movement has promoted the concept of a democratic federal world government to eliminate wars and control nuclear weapons. Under such a world government, individual countries would lose a considerable degree of sovereignty. For Americans, loss of sovereignty has been the greatest barrier to the creation of a federal world government. In the choice between world government and sovereignty, the vast majority of Americans chose sovereignty.

In 21^st century, the roll of sovereignty in this choice will diminish significantly. China will become the dominate world power with more relative military power than the United States and the Soviet Union at their combined peak.

The arithmetic is simple and it is on China’s side. China has more than four times the population of the United States. When China’s per capita income reaches half that of the U.S., their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be double the U.S. (½ x 4 = 2) When China’s per capita income reaches parity with the U.S., their economy will be four times the size of the U.S. Therefore, their defense department can be four times the size of the U.S. Defense Department and Chinese autocracy will rule the world.

China will pass the U.S. in nominal GDP before the middle of this century according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). According to the IMF, China has already passed the U.S. in GDP at purchasing Power Parity (PPP), but not yet at nominal GDP.

China’s economy has grown at the rate of 9.5% over the past 30 years. This incredible success has brought nearly one million people out of poverty. Chinese leaders see this validating their style of autocratic leadership. While China’s growth rate is slowing, they will likely continue growing at higher rates that the developed countries due to their lower base of per capita income.

World domination by China should motivate nations to join together and find a better solution to world government. Reforming the United Nations, with its one-nation, one-vote, will not solve this problem. The United States and other OECD countries should initiate and fund a study to find a solution to global governance.

Global Warming & the Impacts of Climate Change

The Paris Accord climate agreement, signed on Earth Day 2016, hoped to restrict global warming to two degrees centigrade. The United States withdrew from the Paris climate agreement on June 1, 2017.

Studies show that 93% of increased temperatures are absorbed by the ocean. The earth and air absorb the remaining 7%. NASA and NOAA predict that oceans could rise up to two meters (6.6 feet) by the end of the 21^st century and continue rising into the 22^nd century.

Historically, climate scientists have underestimated the impact of climate change to avoid damaging their forecasting credibility. In addition, scientists underestimated the magnitude of methane gas and carbon dioxide released from Siberia and the Artic as the tundra thaws. Methane has 20 times the impact of carbon dioxide on global warming.

The rise in sea levels from a two-degree centigrade increase in warming would mean the abandonment of some island nations in the Pacific Ocean plus parts of Persian Gulf countries. It would also result in the extinction of the world’s tropical reefs. A two-degree increase in temperatures is now the best-case scenario.   A recent study, reported in the New York Times 8/1/18, predicted there is only a 5% chance of holding the temperature rise to two degrees are and a 95% chance it will go higher.

A three-degree warming would mean the loss of most coastal cities, plus the loss of more ocean island nations and arctic forests. This has become the more realistic outcome.

A four-degree rise would put Europe in permanent drought and large areas of China and India would be claimed by desert.   Polynesia would be under water and the American Southwest would become largely uninhabitable.

The New York Times reported that “The prospect of a five-degree warming has prompted some of the world’s leading climate scientists to warn of the end of human civilization.”

Four recent surveys showed that 97% of climate scientists attributed global warming primarily to human activity. (Burning carbon fuels produces carbon-dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas.) A Gallop poll in March 2018 found that only 45% of Americans think global warming will pose a serious threat during their lifetime, including 18% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats. The American Association for the Advancement of Science released a statement saying: “Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research concludes that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.”

In 1850, there were 150 glaciers in Glacier National Park. Today, there are 25. Sea ice off the cost of northern Greenland is the oldest and thickest in the Artic and scientists expected it to remain frozen year around. It has been replaced with miles of open water. Sunlight entering the atmosphere is normally reflected back into space by ice, but is now absorbed by the dark blue ocean where ice has melted, further heating the ocean water.

Rising ocean levels are not the only problem created by global warming. From 1950 to 2017, floods have increased 15 times, droughts increased ten times and major wildfires have increased seven times. In the United States, heavy rainfalls are accelerating the loss to topsoil required to grow crops. Rising oceans are poisoning rice paddies with salt water. The accelerated shrinkage of the Himalayan glaciers provides less water for vast agricultural areas in Asia.

Scientists expect global food production to start declining in 15 to 20 years and population is expected to grow from 7.5 billion to over 11 billion by the end of this century.

How is the U.S. Government addressing the climate change issues? The EPA’s proposed budget “discontinues funding for the Clean Power Plan, international climate change programs, climate change research and partnership programs, and related efforts.” The State Department budget proposal “eliminates the Global Climate Change Initiative and fulfills the President’s pledge to cease payments to the United Nations’ (UN) climate change programs by eliminating U.S. funding related to the Green Climate Fund and its two precursor Climate Investment Funds.” The budget also cut several NASA programs designed to study climate change. Joel Clement, award-winning climate scientist in the Department of Interior, was involuntarily reassigned to collecting royalty fees from oil producers operating on Government land. He resigned. In a recent press briefing, Mick Mulvaney, the head of the President’s Office of Management and Budget, stated, “We’re not spending money on that (climate change) anymore. We consider that to be a waste of your money to go out and do that.”

Nevertheless, global warming is the greatest challenge facing civilization in the 21^st century. The United States, with the largest economy in the world, should play a leadership role in meeting this challenge.

China vs. United States

Differences in Objectives

China and the U.S. have some significantly different objectives.  This is a limited look at some of those differences.

China Objectives

China wants to be Number 1 in renewable energy production.  China now generates nearly twice as much renewable energy (wind & solar) as the U.S.

China wants to be Number 1 in the production and use of electric cars.  China now produces nearly twice as many electric cars and hybrids as the U.S.

China intends to be Number 1 in high-speed rail, which is electric.  China now has more than 15,000 miles of high-speed rail, more than eight times the number 2 country, Spain.  The U.S. has none.

China plans to be Number 1 in artificial intelligence (AI).   Eric Schmidt, former chair of Google, said, “By 2020, China will have caught up in AI.  By 2025, they will be ahead of the U.S.  By 2030, they will dominate the industry.”

China wants to be Number 1 in quantum computing.  According to NASA and Google, quantum computers can outperform today’s supercomputers by more than 3,600 times and today’s personal computers by 100 million times.  Who is leading is hard to measure.  China is building the world’s largest quantum research facility and intends to be the global leader.  China has already launched a satellite than utilizes quantum computing.

U.S. Objectives

One U.S. objective is to “bring back coal” by relaxing or eliminating regulations on the production and use of coal.  Since 1980, coal production has been level at approximately 800 million short tons every year.  In 1980, the coal industry employed 242,000 people.  This year, 53,000 work coal mining according to the Bureau of Labor Standards. This decline in employment is due to technology.  The energy secretary proposed subsidizing coal because natural gas and renewable energy costs have fallen below coal in generating electricity.

Another U.S. objective is to bring back manufacturing jobs.  In 1987, General Motors employed 877,000 worldwide.  At the end of 2017, GM employed 180,000 worldwide and GM produced more cars.  The decline in employees is primarily due to the use of robots and other manufacturing technologies.

Manufacturing employment in the US peaked in 1944 at 38% of total US employment.  At the end of 2016, it amounted to 8% of total employment.  More than 80% of the job losses in manufacturing have been due to technology.

The Administration wants to control immigration with a wall between the U.S. and Mexico.  During the last three years, more immigrants have entered the U.S. from Asia than from Latin and South America.  The illegal Asians have simply overstayed their visas.

Just as a footnote, the U.S. has always dominated the list of the top 1,000 universities in the world.  In 2000, China had none of this list.  Today, the U.S. remains the clear leader with 221 universities on this list, but China is now in second place with 136.  Also, the International Monetary Fund and Pricewaterhouse Coopers have both forecast that China’s economy will be 50% larger than the U.S. in 2050.  The U.S. will be in 3^rd place behind India.

Trade with Canada:  The Milky Facts

Canada guarantees a minimum price for milk for its dairy farmers, just is the U.S. does for its farmers on 13 agricultural products, including milk. Canada uses tariffs on milk to limit the supply and keep milk prices from falling, which would increase the Canadian government’s cost of subsidies. These tariffs only apply to shipments above the Canadian quota. The U.S. does not exceed the quota and therefore pays no tariffs.

The U.S. ships significant quantities of unfiltered milk to Canada. It is used to product cheese and is free to tariffs.

In 2017, the U.S. sold five times as much dairy products to Canada ($792 million) as Canada sold to the U.S. ($149). Total U.S. exports to Canada were $341 billion in 2017 and imports were $333 billion, which produced a U.S. trade surplus in goods and services of $8 billion.

Finally, Canada agreed to end its dairy quotas as part of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). In fact, eleven nations reduced or ended tariffs on 14,000 American made products under the TPP Agreement. The Trump Administration withdrew from TPP agreement.

North Korea: Encouraging Wisdom

North Korea continues to advance its nuclear weapons program and its missile technology. Negotiations are the only realistic solution to these problems. Military action would cause catastrophic damage and loss of lives. Continuing on the current path will allow North Korea to increase its arsenal of weapons.

Today, one of the most critical potential threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear program is the sale of the technology or weapons to ISIS or Al Qaeda or some other terrorist organization. Terrorist organizations have the capacity to smuggle bombs into Mexico and use a drone to deliver them to cities in the southwestern part of the United States. It would be even easier for terrorists to use a drone to drop a bomb in Israel. Drones that can carry 2,000 pounds are now available on the international market. A 2,000-pound nuclear bomb can produce an explosive force of one million tons of TNT.

The risk of an attack on the U.S. from a location in Mexico underscores the importance of a strong relationship with Mexico. Anything less could compromise national security.

To mitigate risks, negotiations with North Korea are the only viable solution. Currently, the precondition of U.S. negotiations with North Korea is the elimination of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. This precondition is a non-starter for North Korea. Kim Jung-un believes his nuclear weapons are necessary for the survival of his regime. Having observed the demise of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi after they gave up their nuclear weapon program, he will not relinquish his nuclear weapons.

To get all parties to the negotiating table, there cannot be any preconditions. A potential outcome from such negotiations might include:

1. North Korea agrees to freeze its nuclear and missile programs.
2. North Korea allows inspections by the IAEA.
3. North Korea agrees to ban the export nuclear weapons, materials and technology.
4. U.S. agrees to cease regime change plans and rhetoric.
5. U.S. and U.N. agree to phase out sanctions as compliance is verified.
6. U.S. agrees to a gradual reduction of its presence in the Korean Peninsula.

While this type of negotiated settlement is not ideal from either the American perspective or the North Korean perspective, it is better than a devastating war and better than allowing North Korea to increase its arsenal of nuclear weapons.

Norman Cousins, author, professor and editor of the Saturday Review wrote, “Wisdom consists of the anticipation of consequences.” Let’s encourage wisdom.