Global Warming & the Impacts of Climate Change
The Paris Accord climate agreement, signed on Earth Day 2016, hoped to restrict global warming to two degrees centigrade. The United States withdrew from the Paris climate agreement on June 1, 2017.
Studies show that 93% of increased temperatures are absorbed by the ocean. The earth and air absorb the remaining 7%. NASA and NOAA predict that oceans could rise up to two meters (6.6 feet) by the end of the 21st century and continue rising into the 22nd century.
Historically, climate scientists have underestimated the impact of climate change to avoid damaging their forecasting credibility. In addition, scientists underestimated the magnitude of methane gas and carbon dioxide released from Siberia and the Artic as the tundra thaws. Methane has 20 times the impact of carbon dioxide on global warming.
The rise in sea levels from a two-degree centigrade increase in warming would mean the abandonment of some island nations in the Pacific Ocean plus parts of Persian Gulf countries. It would also result in the extinction of the world’s tropical reefs. A two-degree increase in temperatures is now the best-case scenario. A recent study, reported in the New York Times 8/1/18, predicted there is only a 5% chance of holding the temperature rise to two degrees are and a 95% chance it will go higher.
A three-degree warming would mean the loss of most coastal cities, plus the loss of more ocean island nations and arctic forests. This has become the more realistic outcome.
A four-degree rise would put Europe in permanent drought and large areas of China and India would be claimed by desert. Polynesia would be under water and the American Southwest would become largely uninhabitable.
The New York Times reported that “The prospect of a five-degree warming has prompted some of the world’s leading climate scientists to warn of the end of human civilization.”
Four recent surveys showed that 97% of climate scientists attributed global warming primarily to human activity. (Burning carbon fuels produces carbon-dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas.) A Gallop poll in March 2018 found that only 45% of Americans think global warming will pose a serious threat during their lifetime, including 18% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats. The American Association for the Advancement of Science released a statement saying: “Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research concludes that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.”
In 1850, there were 150 glaciers in Glacier National Park. Today, there are 25. Sea ice off the cost of northern Greenland is the oldest and thickest in the Artic and scientists expected it to remain frozen year around. It has been replaced with miles of open water. Sunlight entering the atmosphere is normally reflected back into space by ice, but is now absorbed by the dark blue ocean where ice has melted, further heating the ocean water.
Rising ocean levels are not the only problem created by global warming. From 1950 to 2017, floods have increased 15 times, droughts increased ten times and major wildfires have increased seven times. In the United States, heavy rainfalls are accelerating the loss to topsoil required to grow crops. Rising oceans are poisoning rice paddies with salt water. The accelerated shrinkage of the Himalayan glaciers provides less water for vast agricultural areas in Asia.
Scientists expect global food production to start declining in 15 to 20 years and population is expected to grow from 7.5 billion to over 11 billion by the end of this century.
How is the U.S. Government addressing the climate change issues? The EPA’s proposed budget “discontinues funding for the Clean Power Plan, international climate change programs, climate change research and partnership programs, and related efforts.” The State Department budget proposal “eliminates the Global Climate Change Initiative and fulfills the President’s pledge to cease payments to the United Nations’ (UN) climate change programs by eliminating U.S. funding related to the Green Climate Fund and its two precursor Climate Investment Funds.” The budget also cut several NASA programs designed to study climate change. Joel Clement, award-winning climate scientist in the Department of Interior, was involuntarily reassigned to collecting royalty fees from oil producers operating on Government land. He resigned. In a recent press briefing, Mick Mulvaney, the head of the President’s Office of Management and Budget, stated, “We’re not spending money on that (climate change) anymore. We consider that to be a waste of your money to go out and do that.”
Nevertheless, global warming is the greatest challenge facing civilization in the 21st century. The United States, with the largest economy in the world, should play a leadership role in meeting this challenge.
